It's time to shift focus from supply to demand
Last week Imperial College London’s IDLES Programme released its latest White Paper: Net-zero GB electricity: cost-optimal generation and storage mix.
Three of its 7 key conclusions were:
The capacity of offshore wind needed to achieve net-zero electricity for GB in 2035 is at least twice the existing 2030 target;
A substantial increase in the volume of energy storage is needed to support a system dominated by wind and solar energy.
Direct Air Capture of CO2 could have a large impact on how electric heating is supported
But just how deliverable are they? For example, the article acknowledges that DAC is “not a mature technology” so its prominence in the conclusions is a bit of a surprise. Rather than making the case for increased investment, for me this study has demonstrated and indeed reinforces the need to look at the other side of the equation – demand.
This, like many other recent reports, is a supply-led analysis: given increased demand what grid scale supply is required? Demand was modelled based on increases in the number of electric vehicles and heating systems. There is no variation for improved energy efficiency or demand reductions: the requirement is to meet the determined level of demand whatever that is. But, if the consequences of this are too great or challenging, surely we need to examine what steps are needed to flex and reduce the level of demand? For example:
How much will renovation wave initiatives reduce heating demand and facilitate greater levels of self-generation and storage?
How much can EVs contribute to the higher levels of storage required?
Could road charging, an inevitable result of reduced petrol sales, be used to moderate mileage?
How far can the potential of distributed energy and the flexibility it delivers take us?
Are these both more achievable and of greater benefit to consumers than building huge corporate energy assets?
So, having demonstrated the scale of the challenge, I strongly suggest the follow-on research requirement should be: what can demand side measures contribute to Net Zero? Such a study should look at 4 key topics:
The contribution a large scale “green-recovery” renovation wave could make to reducing demand and improving network/system efficiency
The contribution self-generation and, more to the point, self-consumption optimising energy storage, could make to reducing demand and improving network/system efficiency
The contribution Vehicle-to-Grid could make to the substantial increase in the volume of energy storage needed
The financial impact of demand side investments on consumer costs, fuel poverty, local employment, system resilience and similar such community benefits.
Much of this comes down to the meaning of the “energy transition”. This should be about rebalancing the system between demand and supply, between the needs of the energy industry and the needs of society, particularly environmental sustainability, and between centralised control and distributed energy. It is not about transitioning to a still centralised but zero-carbon energy system, if that were at all possible, which this study suggests it probably isn’t.
Author: Simon Anderson